Coupling Infrastructure Resilience And Flood Risk Assessment Via Copulas Analyses For A Coastal Green-Grey-Blue Drainage System Under Extreme Weather Events

This study sheds light on the coupling of potential flood risk and drainage infrastructure resilience of low-lying areas of a coastal urban watershed to evaluate flood hazards and their possible driving forces. Copulas analyses with the aid of joint probability of simultaneous occurrence help characterize the complexity for hazard classification based on subsequent exposure to inundation under varying levels of adaptive capacity. Adaptive measures of consideration include traditional flood proofing structures and low impact development facilities for a coastal urban watershed - the Cross Bayou watershed, near Tampa Bay, Florida. Findings indicate that coupling flood risk and infrastructure resilience is achievable through the careful formulation of flood risk associated with a resilience metric, which is a function of the predicted hazards, vulnerability, and adaptive capacity. The results also give insights into improving existing methodologies for municipalities in flood management practices such as incorporating a multi-criteria flood impact assessment that couples risk and resilience in a common evaluation framework

Developing A Multi-Scale Modeling System For Resilience Assessment Of Green-Grey Drainage Infrastructures Under Climate Change And Sea Level Rise Impact

Multi-scale modeling analysis is often required for comprehensive resilience assessment of urban drainage infrastructures to account for global climate change impact and local watershed response. The goal of this study was to develop a multi-scale modeling platform for drainage infrastructure resilience assessment in a coastal watershed. The model employs scale-dependent informatics, including hydroinformatics, climate informatics, and geoinformatics, to support a comprehensive hydrodynamic stormwater and hydrologic model, called the Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing Model. Low Impact Development (LID), deemed as green drainage infrastructure, was adopted and assessed in the Cross Bayou Watershed, Florida. The Cross Bayou Canal is the grey infrastructure, which dissects the watershed and connects both Tampa Bay and Boca Ciega Bay on its northeastern and southwestern ends, respectively. Modeling scenarios are driven by watershed-scale rainfall/runoff, coastal high tide, and global sea level rise, respectively or collectively, to evaluate the green-grey drainage infrastructure system in response to current and future coastal flood hazards predicted for year 2030. The quantitative resilience metrics, such as peak inflow reduction at flood zone, were chosen to reflect storms that pose threats to the watershed, now and in the future year 2030, for climate change scenarios derived by the Statistical Downscaling Model. Results indicate that the effectiveness of LID depends on the rainfall type being considered, such as convective storm versus frontal rain, and sub-daily rainfall patterns, as well as a groundwater table analysis

Cascade Impact Of Hurricane Movement, Storm Tidal Surge, Sea Level Rise And Precipitation Variability On Flood Assessment In A Coastal Urban Watershed

For comprehensive flood assessment, complex systems, both natural and man-made, must be accounted for due to prevailing cascade effects from the upper atmosphere to the subsurface with hydrological and hydraulic interactions in between. This study aims to demonstrate such cascade effects via an integrated nearshore oceanic and coastal watershed model. Such an integrated modeling system consists of a coupled hydrodynamic circulation and wave driven model [the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) models], which can combine storm surge, astronomic tide levels and wave interaction, as well as an integrated hydrological/hydraulic model, namely the Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing (ICPR) model for coastal urban watershed simulation. In order to explore the worst scenario of coastal flooding impacts on a low-lying coastal watershed, the Cross Bayou Watershed within the Tampa Bay area of Florida was chosen for a multi-scale simulation analysis. To assess hurricane-induced storm tide, precipitation variability, and sea level rise collectively this multi-scale simulation analysis combines ADCIRC/SWAN and ICPR integratively. Findings indicate that such consideration of complex interactions at the coastal ocean, land surface, and sub-surface levels can provide useful flood assessments which are sensitive to slight changes in natural hazard characteristics such as storm intensity, radius of maximum winds, storm track, and landfall location

Cascade impact of hurricane movement, storm tidal surge, sea level rise and precipitation variability on flood assessment in a coastal urban watershed

For comprehensive flood assessment, complex systems, both natural and man-made, must be accounted for due to prevailing cascade effects from the upper atmosphere to the subsurface with hydrological and hydraulic interactions in between. This study aims to demonstrate such cascade effects via an integrated nearshore oceanic and coastal watershed model. Such an integrated modeling system consists of a coupled hydrodynamic circulation and wave driven model [the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) models], which can combine storm surge, astronomic tide levels and wave interaction, as well as an integrated hydrological/hydraulic model, namely the Interconnected Channel and Pond Routing (ICPR) model for coastal urban watershed simulation. In order to explore the worst scenario of coastal flooding impacts on a low-lying coastal watershed, the Cross Bayou Watershed within the Tampa Bay area of Florida was chosen for a multi-scale simulation analysis. To assess hurricane-induced storm tide, precipitation variability, and sea level rise collectively this multi-scale simulation analysis combines ADCIRC/SWAN and ICPR integratively. Findings indicate that such consideration of complex interactions at the coastal ocean, land surface, and sub-surface levels can provide useful flood assessments which are sensitive to slight changes in natural hazard characteristics such as storm intensity, radius of maximum winds, storm track, and landfall location